Comparing Forecasters With Forecasters (If Not Exactly Prophets With Prophets) To See Who Comes Out On Top.

🔍 Comparative Forecasting Table: Armstrong vs. Dalio vs. Schiff vs. Others

Category	Martin Armstrong	Ray Dalio	Peter Schiff	Lyn Alden / Macro Voices
Core Model	Proprietary AI-driven Economic Confidence Model (based on cycles of 8.6 years and historical inflection points)	Debt cycle theory, historical long-term cycles of empire and economics	Austrian economics, gold standard, hard money principles	Macro-fundamentals, fiscal/monetary policy, global liquidity, real economy
World War Outlook	High probability of a world war led by EU desperation and NATO escalation with Russia	Increasing geopolitical conflict, but more focused on U.S.-China Cold War 2.0	Believes war is likely as fiat systems collapse and blame is redirected	Emphasis on conflict risks, but less doomsday—more concerned with financial dislocations
Ukraine’s Fate	Ukraine “will not exist” as a country long-term; collapse is certain	Sees Ukraine as a piece in a larger geopolitical chessboard, but avoids absolutes	Ukraine seen as a proxy war; U.S. pushing conflict to maintain hegemonic control	Varied views across analysts; some support Ukraine narrative, others see it as unsustainable
U.S. Dollar Outlook	Bullish short-to-mid term: last to fall. Dollar dominance holds due to global consumer base	Cautiously bearish long-term; foresees decline of dollar-based world order	Strongly bearish: dollar collapse is imminent; fiat currency is doomed	Bullish dollar during crises; bearish over long-term due to excessive debt and weaponization
Gold Outlook	Gold will rise, but not until it hits Armstrong’s cycle turn point; not always immediate	Bullish as hedge against debt and political instability	Ultra-bullish: $5,000+ gold inevitable; central banks can’t stop it	Bullish but nuanced—real rates, inflation regime, and global demand matter
Equity Markets Outlook	Bullish on U.S. stocks: Dow 62,000 by 2032 as capital flees Europe	Bearish on Western stocks in real terms; favors diversified emerging markets	Bearish: sees markets as overinflated bubbles supported by Fed policy	Mixed: cautious short-term, bullish long-term in real assets (commodities, EMs)
Bitcoin & Crypto	Skeptical: views crypto as a distraction; expects governments to crush it with regulation and CBDCs	Believes Bitcoin may play a role as alternative asset, but highly regulated	Anti-crypto: sees Bitcoin as worthless, tulip bubble-style phenomenon	Nuanced: crypto is here to stay, but adoption hinges on tech, privacy, and institutional support
Europe’s Future	Bleak: economic collapse imminent, EU is dictatorial and unsustainable	Sees structural weaknesses but focuses more on China's rise	Predicts European economic implosion due to socialism and centralization	Agrees EU is overregulated and vulnerable to crisis, especially energy-related
Systemic Risk Focus	Cycles, capital flows, hidden signals before events; "someone always knows"	Debt bubbles, declining empires, and polarity between East/West	Collapse of fiat money, central banks, Keynesian fraud	Energy shortages, geopolitical constraints, monetary policy lags
Key Warnings	- Ukraine will fall

• Europe needs war
• World war likely
• Capital controls & digital euro imminent
• Zelensky is a puppet
• Nothing is random | - U.S. empire declining
• China rising
• Global debt unsustainable
• U.S.-China Cold War intensifying | - Dollar collapse imminent
• Fed will destroy economy
• Buy gold now
• Hyperinflation or stagflation ahead | - Financial repression coming
• Global demand shift
• Real returns > nominal
• Inflation is sticky |

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🧠 Interpretation: What Sets Armstrong Apart?

Martin Armstrong’s uniqueness lies in:

• Time-specific, date-precise predictions (e.g., May 15 peace talks).
• His claim that all human behavior follows cyclical, mathematical patterns, even down to war.
• An aggressively anti-EU and anti-globalist position, calling out internal corruption and forecasting regime collapse.

While Dalio focuses on macro systems, and Schiff hammers central banking and fiat currency, Armstrong warns of scripted historical inevitabilities baked into global behavior, likening his model to biblical prophecy (e.g., Joseph’s famine cycle).

 

🥊 Armstrong vs. Schiff: The Gold Bug vs. The Cycle Prophet

Aspect	Peter Schiff	Martin Armstrong
Worldview	Reality is grounded in sound money and Austrian principles. Fiat is inherently corrupt.	Reality is shaped by collective belief and capital flow. What people believe becomes true in markets.
Gold	Ultimate safe haven. Gold will explode as fiat collapses. $5,000+ gold is inevitable.	Gold has its place, but only rises when cycles dictate. Belief in it must return before a breakout.
US Dollar	Doomed. Unsustainable debt, Fed printing, and global loss of confidence will cause collapse.	Strong—because of belief and global usage. USD remains dominant because 25% of global spending is American.
Forecasting Tool	Austrian economics, monetary policy critique, and historical gold standards.	Proprietary Economic Confidence Model (8.6-year cycles), rooted in behavioral and capital trends.
Faith in Systems	Governments are hopelessly corrupt. Collapse is inevitable.	Systems are corrupt—but predictably so. Cycles account for manipulation and insider moves.
Investment Advice	Buy physical gold and silver. Short fiat, short bonds.	Diversify. Stay liquid. Follow the cycles. Equities may boom even during chaos.
Bitcoin/Crypto	Scam and bubble. No intrinsic value.	Distracting tool. Governments will crush it via regulation and CBDCs.
Geopolitical Lens	The U.S. and EU are collapsing because of money printing and socialism.	The U.S. will remain strong longer, but Europe is in terminal decline and desperate for war.
Narrative Summary	“Gold is money. Fiat is fraud. Collapse is coming. Prepare accordingly.”	“Markets follow belief, not truth. The herd determines value. Understand the cycle—or be consumed by it.”

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🧠 Armstrong’s Crucial Distinction:

“It’s not about what’s real. It’s about what people believe is real.”

Armstrong emphasizes that faith in the dollar, trust in U.S. institutions, and mass psychology are what keep the system alive. While Schiff waits for reality to assert itself through collapse, Armstrong argues that perception drives market outcomes—even if they defy logic or morality.

In short:

• Schiff = objective value.
• Armstrong = subjective belief.

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🎯 Final Thought:

Schiff is warning about the inevitable end of the fiat system.
Armstrong is navigating the world as it is—where belief, not truth, moves capital.

Both men critique the current system, but only Armstrong embraces the paradox: that falsehood, if widely accepted, can fuel markets and postpone collapse indefinitely.

🕰️ Peter Schiff’s “Imminent Dollar Collapse” – A Longstanding Refrain

Peter Schiff has been predicting the collapse of the U.S. dollar and the explosion of gold for over two decades, going back to the early 2000s. While he rightly forecast events like the 2008 housing crisis, his warnings of a dollar crash have not materialized, even as U.S. debt, deficits, and money printing have accelerated.

Here’s a brief historical rundown of Schiff’s core warning:

Year	Claim	Outcome
Early 2000s	Dollar collapse imminent due to trade deficit and low interest rates.	Dollar remained reserve currency; gold rose, but dollar didn't collapse.
2008	Warned about housing bubble collapse and fallout (correctly). Predicted dollar collapse next.	Housing crash occurred. Dollar strengthened during crisis as a safe haven.
2010–2020	QE, stimulus, and rising debt would crash the dollar and hyperinflate the economy.	Inflation remained subdued for most of the decade. Dollar retained global dominance.
2020–Present	COVID stimulus and $30+ trillion debt would trigger final dollar death spiral.	Inflation rose, but dollar index remained strong. Gold fluctuated, and equities surged.

🚨 Repeating a Broken Clock Warning?

Schiff’s dollar collapse prediction has become so perennial, critics joke it's like a "permanent forecast with no expiration date."

Martin Armstrong has criticized this mentality directly:

“Peter doesn’t understand the international capital flows. The U.S. is not isolated. When Europe collapses, money flees into the dollar—not away from it.”
— Martin Armstrong

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🔁 Armstrong vs. Schiff – In Practice

Event	Schiff Says	Armstrong Says
2008 Crash	Dollar will crash next. Buy gold.	Dollar will rise as capital flees Europe and Asia.
QE & Inflation	Hyperinflation is inevitable.	Inflation will come, but dollar strength will persist cyclically.
Ukraine War	Geopolitics will crash dollar and Fed credibility.	Eurozone will collapse first. Dollar will gain in short/mid-term.
2020–2024	Pandemic spending is the death blow to the dollar.	It strengthens U.S. assets as capital seeks safety.

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🧠 Core Difference:

• Peter Schiff sees monetary fundamentals as the determining force: printing = collapse.
• Martin Armstrong sees capital flow and mass psychology as stronger: confidence = persistence.

Or in simpler terms:

Schiff warns based on what "should" happen.
Armstrong predicts based on what people "believe" is happening.

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🧑‍⚖️ Who is More Consulted by Big Government: Ray Dalio vs. Martin Armstrong?

Category	Ray Dalio	Martin Armstrong
Mainstream Influence	Very high—frequently consulted by global leaders, central banks, IMF.	Limited and adversarial—occasionally consulted but seen as an outsider.
Relationship to the Fed/IMF	Attends high-level forums (e.g., Davos, IMF events), writes white papers read by officials.	Had contentious relationships with regulators. Rarely part of mainstream events.
Government Clients	Chinese regulators, Federal Reserve members, World Economic Forum (WEF), U.S. Treasury.	Consulted by European governments (e.g., formation of the euro), but later sidelined.
Tone Toward Government	Pragmatic reformer—warns of decline but doesn’t attack specific figures.	Sharp critic—accuses the U.S. justice system, EU, and globalists of corruption.
Publications Used in Policy	Dalio's writings on debt cycles, reserve currency transitions, and China-U.S. relations are widely circulated among policymakers.	Armstrong’s model has been used covertly (e.g., SEC using his data after 9/11), but not openly cited.
Visibility in Official Circles	High—appears on CNBC, Bloomberg, at Davos, and writes for mainstream platforms.	Low—more known in alt-media, contrarian blogs, and institutional shadow circles.
Attitude Toward Elites	Sees global elites as misguided but reformable.	Sees elites as manipulators, warmongers, and systemic deceivers.

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🧠 Summary:

• Ray Dalio is the insider: He's the go-to voice when governments want a macro hedge fund perspective that still plays by institutional rules. He has been called upon by the Chinese Communist Party, the U.S. Treasury, and international think tanks. His tone is polished, diplomatic, and system-aware.
• Martin Armstrong is the reluctant oracle: His Economic Confidence Model has impressed insiders, but he is distrusted by many governments—especially after exposing financial fraud, refusing to hand over his code, and criticizing the legal system. He’s more likely to be read in secret than invited to speak at the IMF.

Armstrong was reportedly consulted during the creation of the euro, but later pushed out for being too candid.
Dalio has remained in the room, even when he critiques the system—because he plays the long game of influence.

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👑 Who’s Consulted More?

✅ Ray Dalio is consulted more by big government and global institutions—formally, frequently, and globally.
⚠️ Martin Armstrong is consulted sparingly and quietly—his insights are respected but his persona is too dangerous.

 

🔍 Martin Armstrong’s Government Access vs. Outsider Status

✅ Yes, Armstrong is consulted—frequently.

Armstrong has publicly stated multiple times that his firm with offices worldwide has:

• Government clients in Washington and Beijing
• Been contacted by intelligence agencies and finance ministries
• Provided modeling to central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and global institutions
• Been used (quietly) by the SEC after 9/11 to investigate unusual market behavior

He also says:

“We are consulted by people from all over the world—Beijing, Washington, the Middle East—but they don’t always listen. They want validation, not truth.”

But…

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❓Who exactly are these people?

Armstrong rarely names names, but over the years, breadcrumbs have emerged from interviews, blogs, and FOIA-style disclosures. Here's a breakdown:

Country	Entity / Contact (Reported or Implied)	Nature of Engagement
United States	SEC (used his model post-9/11), possibly U.S. Treasury officials	Investigative analysis, capital flow monitoring
China (Beijing)	Ministry of Finance, state-linked economic think tanks	Interest in modeling Western collapse, dollar strength
European Union	Early consultations during the euro’s formation (1990s), ECB observers	Armstrong claims they asked for help, then ignored warnings about non-consolidated debt
UK / City of London	Sovereign wealth advisors, unnamed macro funds	Market cycle timing and capital movement forecasts
Middle East	Saudi shipping magnates (anecdote from the Gulf War); possible sovereign fund contacts	Used model for war/gold forecasting
Russia (pre-2014)	No known direct government link, but institutional clients in the region	Used model to anticipate 1998 collapse

So while he doesn’t sit on WEF panels or get photo-ops with finance ministers, he’s often contacted behind closed doors, especially when capital flow anomalies or geopolitical volatility emerge.

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🧠 Why the Disconnect?

Armstrong’s model is sought out—but his advice is rarely followed.

Here’s why:

• His cycle-based model exposes uncomfortable truths—often forecasting collapses or chaos that policymakers don’t want to hear.
• He refuses to sell access to his source code, unlike most think tanks or modelers who license tools.
• His criticism is biting: he accuses governments of intentional ignorance, manipulation, and economic delusion.

Armstrong himself puts it bluntly:

“They don’t want advice—they want affirmation.”

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🔁 Armstrong’s Role Today:

He operates as a private oracle for insiders who:

• Need to understand capital flight,
• Anticipate war risk or contagion,
• Or simply want to see if his date-specific cycle turns are lining up.

But he remains publicly ostracized because:

• He’s unfiltered and anti-establishment.
• His forecasts aren’t politically useful—they’re often politically damaging.
• He calls out the very people who consult him.

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🔥 Martin Armstrong’s Scathing Comments on World Leaders & Governments

🇺🇸 United States

“There is no rule of law. It’s the Department of Just Us.”
— On the corruption of the U.S. legal system and his imprisonment

“They’re not interested in solving anything. Politicians only care about staying in power.”

“The Fed does not control the economy. It reacts to the markets like everyone else.”
— Challenging the illusion of central bank omnipotence

“Show me the man, I’ll show you the crime. That’s the American legal system today.”
— Echoing Lavrentiy Beria to describe prosecutorial abuse

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🇪🇺 European Union / Germany / France

“Europe is a dictatorship pretending to be a democracy.”

“The euro was never designed to work—it was a political stunt without a consolidated bond market. I warned them. They ignored it.”

“Ursula von der Leyen was never elected by anyone. She is a modern-day emperor without clothes.”

“Macron wants to let all the Ukrainians and Romanians die so he can loot Russia and rise like Napoleon. These people are delusional.”

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🇬🇧 United Kingdom

“The City of London is one of the most corrupt financial centers in the world. They’re worse than Wall Street.”

“The British lied to Ukraine, told them not to settle for peace. That was the death sentence.”
— On Boris Johnson allegedly blocking peace talks

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🇨🇳 China

“China understands cycles far better than the West. But even they are afraid to let the model dictate policy.”

“The Chinese are trying to model Western collapse more than fix their own problems. That’s dangerous.”

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🇷🇺 Russia

“Putin is the adult in the room. You remove him, and you’ll get someone far worse. Just like us, Russia has its neocons too.”

“The Western media paints Putin as the devil. But he's restrained compared to our own warmongers.”

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🌍 Globalist Institutions

“The World Economic Forum is trying to turn the world into a corporate feudal system.”

“Klaus Schwab’s ‘You’ll own nothing and be happy’ is just code for ‘We’re going to default and blame you for it.’”

“These people want war to cover their economic failures. They see war not as a tragedy, but a stimulus package.”

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⚖️ General Observations on Leadership

“They don’t want advice—they want affirmation.”
— On why governments consult him but rarely follow his model

“It’s not that they don’t know the truth. It’s that they are paid to ignore it.”

“We elect people based on popularity, not competence. That’s why civilizations collapse.”

“The real conspiracy is stupidity combined with arrogance.”

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🎯 Takeaway

Martin Armstrong’s tone is furious yet analytical. His scorn is not emotional alone—it is grounded in decades of experience dealing with both political actors and mathematical inevitability.

He doesn’t hate leaders because they are evil.
He criticizes them because they are incompetent, arrogant, and willfully blind to the predictable cycles of history.

🎯 Which Forecaster to Watch?

If you believe...	Follow...
Markets move in hidden cycles and history repeats precisely....................	Martin Armstrong
Global power is shifting east, debt cycles rule nations...............................	Ray Dalio
Fiat currency is collapsing, and gold is salvation.......................................	Peter Schiff
Complex macro themes matter: oil, EMs, real rates, multipolar finance ...	Lyn Alden / Macro Voices

All offer value—but Armstrong delivers the most iconoclastic, high-stakes, and date-specific predictions, often counter to conventional narratives.

📌 Conclusion:

Armstrong has access to insiders—but does not belong to their club.
His insights are consumed, but his warnings are ignored.
And that's exactly what frustrates him the most.

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