Who’s Buying Silver by the Ton in 2025? Russia’s Big Move Explained. Russia has budgeted billions to buy silver. Are central banks quietly hoarding tons of bullion? Here’s what’s known—and what remains hidden.
This article walks through what’s known (and what isn’t), with Russia as a case study, and explores how market participants interpret these clues.
The Russia / Gokhran / Budget Narrative
Institutional framework: Gokhran and the State Fund
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The Gokhran of Russia is the government institution responsible for forming, storing, and releasing the State Fund of Russia’s precious metals and precious stones (gold, silver, platinum group metals, gems, etc.). gokhran.ru+2Interfax+2
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The Gokhran has in the past issued public tenders and purchase notices for refined precious metals and has a mandate (per its charter) to replenish state holdings of precious metals. gokhran.ru
Budget allocations and commitments
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In the Russian federal budget for 2025–2027, a line item of up to 154.5 billion rubles (~USD 1.5 billion) is allocated for Gokhran’s purchase of precious metals and gemstones. Interfax+2MINING.COM+2
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Within that allocation, silver (along with gold, platinum, and palladium) is explicitly named, marking one of the first times in recent years that any major sovereign has publicly slated purchases of silver. mineralprices.com+3CryptoSlate+3Forbes+3
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Some commentary frames this as a strategic shift — Russia attempting to “de-dollarize” parts of its reserve via highly liquid assets. Mint State Gold+1
Past tender / purchase precedent
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In June 2023, Gokhran issued a public tender to buy 5,000 kg (5 metric tons) of refined silver bars (“affinized” / standard bars). This is a confirmed physical purchase (though small in scale relative to ton-scale accumulation narratives). truegoldrepublic.com+2mineralprices.com+2
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However, beyond that tender, I found no publicly audited, recent (2024–2025) disclosures that confirm multi-ton acquisitions in Russian state or central bank silver reserves.
Supporting Signals & Market Clues
Because discrete ton-scale silver purchases are rarely fully disclosed, analysts often look to indirect indicators. Below are some of the more compelling signals.
Vault withdrawals & exchange inventory movements
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One clue is the movement of silver out of “eligible” storage vaults (COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai) and into private vaults or registered (deliverable) status. Declines in exchange inventories are often taken by silver analysts as signs of underlying physical demand. Metal.com+2Forbes+2
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Kitco has noted speculation that Russia’s central bank might be “boosting silver prices through undeclared purchases,” referencing these vault/inventory trends and the timing of silver rallies. Kitco
Price behavior & market commentary
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Some analysts have pointed out that silver’s outperformance (versus gold) in parts of 2025 is consistent with large accumulation behind the scenes, especially if central banks or sovereigns are entering the market. Metal.com+2Forbes+2
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Forbes, in a recent article, observes that “there has been no further news” confirming continued silver acquisitions by the Russian central bank, but speculates that the markets may already be pricing in hidden accrual. Forbes
Precious metal reserve reporting
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Russian banks’ “precious metals” holdings are sometimes reported in gold-equivalent units (i.e. converting total precious metals into an equivalent tonnage of gold). Thus, changes in those holdings could mask silver vs gold shifts. For example:
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In August 2025, Russian banks reportedly increased precious metal reserves by 0.6 tonnes (gold equivalent). Interfax
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In 2024, some drops in precious metals holdings (in gold-equivalent terms) were also reported. gokhran.ru+2Interfax+2
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However, because of the “precious metals aggregate” reporting, these figures do not permit silver-specific attribution.
What We Don’t Know — Gaps & Limitations
To interpret these hints properly, it’s crucial to understand the uncertainties and missing pieces:
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Budget ≠ execution
A line item for silver is a plan or authorization — not proof the metals have been bought. Timing, volume, and actual deliveries may lag or deviate. -
No discrete audited silver reserve disclosures
I found no credible 2025 central bank or government report that states “X metric tons of silver added to reserves.” Standard reserve disclosures still favor gold as the shelf item. -
“Precious metals” aggregation hides silver
Many public statements (especially from Russian sources) treat “precious metals” as a blended category, making it hard to isolate silver vs gold or platinum. -
Private / off-balance holdings
Even if sovereigns are buying silver, they might store it in private vaults, third-party warehousing, or off-balance sheet structures to avoid scrutiny or market signaling. -
Market & reporting delays
The lag between physical purchase, registration, vaulting, and public reporting can be months or more. Some purchases may remain undisclosed for strategic reasons. -
Confounding by industrial demand / ETF flows
Some silver demand arises from industrial use, solar, electronics, or ETF share redemptions. These flows muddy the attribution to sovereign accumulation.
Interpretation, Implications & Scenarios
Putting together the pieces, here’s how I’d narrate the emerging hypothesis — and lay out possible scenarios and market implications.
Hypothesis / narrative
Russia seems to be among the first modern sovereigns to publicly declare an intention to treat silver as a part of its reserve acquisition strategy. The budget inclusion, plus past tender activity, give it credible intent. Combined with vault outflows and silver’s relative strength vs gold, the market is increasingly viewing Russia as a stealth buyer of physical silver.
Even if official disclosures lag, this tacit accumulation is likely already embedded in the silver price.
Scenarios / roadmaps
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Modest accumulation path
Russia gradually channels a portion of its 154.5 billion ruble allocation into silver — maybe tens to low hundreds of tons over 2025–2027. The public announcements remain limited, and most metal is quietly stored domestically or in allied vaults. -
Sharp accumulation path / surprise buys
Russia (or affiliated sovereigns) makes larger than expected acquisitions in certain quarters, triggering vault draws, price jumps, or inventory squeezes. These could be timed opportunistically during market dips. -
Limited execution / diversion to gold
Russia allocates funds, but due to market conditions or liquidity preference, a larger fraction is consumed in gold or platinum instead of silver. Silver still benefits from signaling, but tonnage remains modest. -
Global contagion / copying by other central banks
If Russia’s silver accumulation is viewed as a success, other sovereigns may follow, adding a new frontier in precious metals reserve behavior.
Market implications
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Tightening supply / inventory squeeze
If sovereigns (or large institutions) gobble silver bullion off the market, the already-thin inventories in exchange vaults could tighten further, increasing backwardation or premium spreads. -
Premiums for deliverable silver
The cost to convert ETF shares into delivered silver or to source physical bars could rise, especially in stressed markets. -
Rally sentiment acceleration
The narrative shift — from silver as “industrial metal” to silver as a strategic reserve metal — could draw new capital (sovereign, institutional, thematic) into silver. -
Repricing of gold-silver ratio
Typically, silver is more volatile than gold. Sovereign accumulation could help compress the ratio (silver catching up) in certain macro regimes. -
Policy / reporting pressure
As more sovereigns dabble in silver, audit, reserve reporting, and governance pressures may grow — eventually forcing more transparent silver disclosures from central banks.
Conclusion & What to Watch
As of 2025, no singular public document conclusively proves that a central bank has purchased multiple tens or hundreds of tons of silver. But a constellation of indirect signals — budget allocations, public tenders, vault withdrawals, and price behavior — increasingly points to Russia (via Gokhran) as the leading candidate for sovereign-scale silver accumulation.
If you like, I can turn this into a publishable article (with citations, charts, timeline) and send it to you as a polished piece. Want me to produce that version?
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